Mark Carney's trade push collides with reality of US dependence

Mark Carney's push to assemble a bloc of mid-level economies aims to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States, but access to the U.S. market remains a powerful lure for partners. Since winning election in April 2025, his team has led four trade missions, including two to Asia, with a fifth, the largest yet, headed to Japan later this month to attract investment in mining, engineering and infrastructure. Canadian officials say tariff-free access to the U.S. through the USMCA remains the baseline of investment attraction, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade is tariff-free. The renewal of the USMCA is due by July 1 and requires three-way reviews, offering either a 16-year extension or an annual extension of 10 years, with six months’ notice to quit. The auto sector illustrates the tension: Toyota lobbied for the USMCA on 13 of 14 occasions this year, and Honda on 21 of 27 contacts, underlining how North American production networks anchor investment. Together, the two suppliers account for more than 75% of vehicles produced in Canada; the findings highlight the challenge for Canada to diversify while preserving access to the U.S. market.