Global market grapples with 1 billion barrels of lost crude supply since war with Iran began - Rystad Energy market note

Rystad Energy notes a global market struggle with roughly 1 billion barrels of lost crude supply since the Iran war began, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait shouldering the bulk of shut‑ins. Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share at 3.8 million barrels per day, followed by Iraq at 2.8 mb/d and Kuwait at 2.0 mb/d, together representing nearly three‑quarters of all losses. April export receipts for Iraq collapsed to about $1 billion from $6.8 billion in February, while Saudi revenue reached about $24.6 billion in March 2026, aided by higher prices. Hormuz traffic remains far below pre‑conflict levels, with vessel movements averaging 5–10 per day in March and staying under 20% of pre‑conflict activity in April and May. Bypass routes such as Yanbu and Fujairah have lifted volumes, but the decline in shipments persists, and ADNOC’s ADCOP expansion to 3.3 mb/d addresses only part of the export challenge, as offshore grades require more infrastructure to reach new terminals. Iranian loadings have fallen from 1.64 mb/d in March to 1.34 mb/d in April and are projected to stay well below 500,000 bpd in May.