Aviation Fuel Demand Doesn't Collapse. Cheap Kerosene Growth Does.

Aviation fuel demand will not collapse, even as cheap kerosene growth evolves into a different regime. Post-COVID recovery shows demand rebounded, challenging the notion that fuel use will shrink to pre-crisis levels, as aviation continues to serve families, business, holidays, emergencies, and connectivity. Yet the sector now faces sustainable aviation fuel mandates, lifecycle-emissions rules, carbon pricing, feedstock constraints, synthetic-fuel costs, and scrutiny of avoidable flying. The analysis argues for a denominator approach, treating aviation as a mosaic of services with varying energy needs, and highlights that shorter routes—roughly under 1,000 kilometers—offer the best electrification potential, subject to certification, infrastructure, and adoption constraints.