High airfares could stick around even if jet fuel prices fall, analysts say

Even if jet fuel prices fall, travelers may keep paying high airline fares, major U.S. airlines and industry analysts warn. Fuel costs spiked after the Iran war began, eased sharply in spring, then surged again through the summer, creating planning challenges. Brett House, an economist at Columbia Business School, says jet fuel rose faster than oil due to higher crude prices and tight supplies of refined fuel, a major operating expense. Airlines responded by cutting some less profitable flights and raising fares and baggage fees, though initial passenger revenue covered only part of the jump. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index fell from $4.88 per gallon in early April to $2.70 in June, yet average fares stayed elevated. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics show average base fares rising from $405 in the last quarter of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of 2026 and $436 in April–June.