French centrists' feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoff

Infighting among France’s centrist presidential hopefuls is fracturing the mainstream vote and boosting the chances of a runoff between far-right Marine Le Pen and hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to pre-election opinion polling. In surveys ahead of next April’s vote, Le Pen is “nearly certain” to reach the second round in May, while Mélenchon is steadily edging past the centrist field. Former Macron prime minister Édouard Philippe has led the center-right effort, but campaign missteps and voter fatigue during Macron’s two terms have hurt his numbers. Philippe’s feud with rival Gabriel Attal over who should step aside has intensified the splits. In an IFOP-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, Philippe fell to 15%, below Mélenchon’s 16.5%, with Attal on 13%. The fragmentation extends beyond their contest, with Raphael Glucksmann gaining after winning a Socialist primary.