Open Championship odds, picks, field, date: Predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors - CBS Sports

The 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale begins Thursday, July 16, with Scottie Scheffler listed as the defending champion and market favorite as odds confirm a loaded field. SportsLine’s model simulated the tournament 10,000 times and identifies Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai, and Wyndham Clark as the year’s first three major winners, all included in the Open. Scheffler is priced at +500, followed by McIlroy at +900, while English players Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+1900) sit among the top names. Jon Rahm (+1800) and Xander Schauffele (+2000) are also near the front. The model’s notable surprise calls for Fleetwood to stumble and barely finish inside the top five, despite prior top-5 results and a 27th place finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017. It also flags Ludvig Åberg as a top-3 contender at +2700, despite not yet winning a major.