Schrodinger's Strait:" Why Hormuz Now Exists in a State of Permanent Uncertainty

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains mired in uncertainty since the Iran war began 187 days ago, and trade watchers still can’t agree on how much oil is actually moving. While the U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright cited 17 million barrels moving through on a recent Monday—near a pre-war pace around 20 million—other tracking firms report sharply different figures. Kpler counted five ships that day, and TankerTrackers.com logged 4.9 million barrels per day since mid-July versus a baseline of about 120 vessels per day. The White House attributed gaps to U.S. Navy night escorts invisible to commercial satellites and ships turning off transponders. The article says record spot rates have rewarded remaining operators, with Teekay Tankers’ Q2 spot rates peaking and strong financial results.