Stronger BoP outlook to keep Rupee far more stable; FY27 surplus seen at USD 97-100 billion: Report

ICICI Bank expects India’s external position to strengthen further, with a balance of payments (BoP) surplus projected to rise sharply to USD 97 billion–USD 100 billion in FY2026-27 (FY27). The report links the outlook to steady capital inflows, manageable trade conditions and expanding external reserves, creating a buffer against global macro volatility. It also points to a more stable rupee performance versus earlier sharp depreciation episodes this year. On the current account, higher remittances (+24% year-on-year in April–July) and services exports (+8.5% in April–August) are expected to support the goods deficit. With crude oil near USD 94 per barrel, the goods deficit is forecast at USD 387–400 billion, keeping the current account deficit at 1.2%–1.6% of GDP. Inflation is projected at 5.0%. The RBI’s active dollar selling and USD 780 billion reserves are cited, alongside a USD 137 billion forward dollar book as of July-end.