Top Invesco Analyst: The AI Trade That "Lifted All Boats" Is Over. Now Profitability Decides Winners As "Capacity Will Catch Up"

Top Invesco Analyst: The AI Trade That “Lifted All Boats” Is Over. Now Profitability Decides Winners As “Capacity Will Catch Up” argues that the AI-driven semiconductor surge is shifting from momentum to selectivity. Invesco’s Fiona Lim, speaking July 3 on Bloomberg’s Insight with Haslinda Amin, said early gains were “momentum driven,” while future differentiation will depend on profitability as AI capacity expands and demand volatility emerges. Her key focus is memory: she cited mid-20% supply growth in 2026 and more capacity announced for 2027, warning pricing may fall from current bottleneck levels. Lim also noted ETFs could amplify swings, especially leveraged products. She highlighted Micron after fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46B (+345.7% YoY), with GAAP gross margin at 84.6% and Q4 guidance near 86%, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra saying key customers receive only 50% to two-thirds of demand. She contrasted TSMC’s steadier outlook, with May revenue of NT$416.98B (+30.1% YoY), and NVIDIA’s coasting performance, including Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.62B (+85.2% YoY) and guidance of $91.0B for Q2.