Can SpaceX Deliver Tesla-Level Returns? The Bull and the Bear Case

The case for SpaceX delivering Tesla-level returns is framed around two contrasting arguments: potential upside from innovation and vertically integrated performance versus risks tied to competition, valuation, and leadership. The article notes Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) went public in 2010 and credits it with mainstreaming EVs and delivering strong returns over 16 years, while also highlighting Tesla’s direct-to-customer model. It then points out that SpaceX, operating through Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), recently went public in what it calls the largest IPO ever. In the bull case, SpaceX’s partially reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy and its Starlink satellite internet network are cited, along with 51% of total orbital launches in 2025 and 54% of operational satellites in orbit. The article also references 10.3 million active Starlink subscribers as of March 31 and ongoing work on Starship.