Who will win the 2026 Nobel Prize in economics? | WNYC

The 2026 Nobel Prize in economics winner won’t be known until Monday, and WNYC’s “Planet Money” and “The Indicator” plan to cover the announcement. In the days leading up to it, the episode focuses on how to think about who might win using prediction tools. The Nobel Prize in economics, officially named the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was created by Sweden’s central bank in 1968. The show notes that committees often favor older researchers and sometimes choose work that matches the “zeitgeist.” It then examines prediction markets, where traders bet on events like Nobel winners. As of Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 6, the market had only about $11,000 in trading volume—far smaller than Kalshi’s roughly $670 million for the 2024 presidential election—making the signal likely thin.