How the Cubs Can Still Catch the Brewers in the NL Central Race

Despite their strong recent form, the Chicago Cubs still face long odds to catch the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Since June 19, Chicago has led MLB offensively with a 121 wRC+ and tops in runs (312), RBI (300), on-base percentage (.346) and fWAR (14.6). At 74-54, the Cubs hold a six-game cushion for the NL Wild Card and have a 98.7% playoff probability per Fangraphs, winning six of their last eight series and nine straight road series. Yet Fangraphs gives them only a 12.1% chance to win the division. Milwaukee, with MLB’s best 78-49 record, leads by 4.5 games and has claimed the NL Central four times in the last six seasons. The teams meet six times already, with the Brewers 4-2 after a May sweep at Wrigley. Seven games remain, starting with a four-game Wrigley series Aug. 31.