Reasons the S&P 500 Could Keep Rallying Through Year-End

The S&P 500 is positioned for continued gains into year-end, with several seasonal and earnings-linked signals pointing to momentum in Q4. Historically, Q4 is the strongest quarter, with the index rising about 80% of the time, after a typically choppy summer. While September has been weaker (rising roughly 50%), October often marks a bottom (about 60%), followed by more sustained strength in November and December. The earnings backdrop is also supportive: Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth topped 50%, outpacing consensus by nearly 3,000 basis points, with energy and the AI boom cited as key drivers.