Wheat rally loses momentum as global supply outlook improves

UK wheat values eased from recent highs as the global supply outlook became more comfortable, with prospects of improved access to Black Sea grain. The shift was triggered by the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published on Friday, 11 September, which raised global supply projections by 3.5m tonnes to 1.103bn tonnes. Increases included Australia (+3m tonnes to 31m) and Canada (+1m tonnes to 36m), and Ukraine (+0.6m to 26m) after a record yield as harvest nears completion. Ending stocks for 2026-27 were lifted by 3m tonnes to 276.3m tonnes. Despite softer pricing—November 2026 London wheat fell to £209.25/t—Black Sea disruption and logistics risks keep markets reactive to news.