Analysts Are Punting Their Calls Into the Next Quarter After Adobe's Mixed Earnings

Adobe shares faced skepticism after the company posted fiscal Q3 2026 results on Sept. 10, even though headline numbers looked strong. The software maker reported record quarterly revenue of $6.76 billion, up 12.9% year over year, and topped EPS expectations. Ending annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rose 11.2% to $27.50 billion, and management raised full-year 2026 EPS and revenue guidance. But the article argues the ARR jump needs scrutiny because Semrush, acquired earlier in the year for $1.9 billion, contributed to the “total ending ARR.” Management projected Semrush would add $480 million in ending ARR, with Q3 reflecting the first full quarter. Excluding the M&A impact, growth appears closer to single digits. Analysts pushed their outlook into Q4, while Semrush-linked freemium efforts reportedly drove a 36%–37% YOY decline in new net ARR.