Bitcoin Dumps on Trump Iran Comments but History Says July Should Be Green Anyways

Bitcoin slid after Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over,” but analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the broader four-year cycle still favors a counter-trend rally through July. The move came as BTC was up 6% month-to-date and had broken an eight-week streak of ETF outflows, posting three consecutive inflow days totaling $487 million before Wednesday’s headlines. Trump made the remarks at a NATO summit after U.S. Central Command struck more than 60 Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats, with Iran retaliating against Kuwait and Bahrain. Cowen highlighted parallels with June 2018 and June 2022, both red months, followed by July gains of about 38% and 19%–20%. Historically, July has averaged roughly 9% gains, before August and September give back the strength and the cycle bottom arrives in the third or fourth quarter. He notes a declining 200-day moving average near $74,000, potentially nearing about $70,000 by mid-August.