Bitcoin's long-term return may actually be close to zero - and that could be just what it needs

A fair-value model based on Metcalfe's Law suggests Bitcoin's long-run return may hover near zero, a finding that reframes its appeal as a currency rather than a growth asset. The model estimates the nominal annualized return at just under 1% over decades, as network size expands while the supply remains capped at 21 million coins. Bitcoin's supply is projected to top out around 2140, with just over 20 million coins issued to date. When price deviates from fair value, the model notes it tends to revert, implying current levels are near equilibrium. Claude Erb, who proposed the approach six years ago, cautions it does not prove correctness.