Bitcoin's Rally Breaks Analyst's Bear Thesis: What Happens Next?

Bitcoin reclaimed $84,000 on Tuesday morning, weakening part of Benjamin Cowen’s bearish thesis that called for a rally during summer followed by weakness into Q4. Cowen told the Bankless podcast on Monday that crossing above its May high of $82,800 to form a higher high—and holding above its 50-week moving average—has historically signaled the end of a bear market. He said holding above roughly $83,000 makes it “hard to be deterministically bearish,” though a pullback after the higher high remains possible. Cowen also expects diminishing returns in the next bull cycle if the summer low holds, pointing to Bitcoin’s relatively shallow 53% peak-to-trough decline and the likelihood of an earlier peak. The article also cites Peter Brandt, who says Bitcoin may have bottomed in June and targets $300,000–$600,000 by 2029, with a possible October dip.