Can Strong Earnings Overcome a More Hawkish Fed?

Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected earnings last Wednesday reaffirmed that the AI boom is holding up, but a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday also drew attention. Despite the two events, the article says markets barely moved: the S&P 500 rose 0.5% for the week. Bond yields shifted with the 10-year Treasury down 0.2 bps and the 2-year up 11 bps, flattening the yield curve. In CME Fed Tool pricing, the odds of a September rate hike rose to about 55%-60% after Warsh’s remarks. The piece keeps an outlook of 8,400 for year-end 2026, supported by record forward earnings reaching $396.05.