COMMENTARY: Oil's long view darkens as Iran war refuses to end

Oil markets have shifted from treating the Iran conflict as a short-lived disruption to pricing a longer period of higher prices, potentially reshaping inflation expectations for years. Eight months into the war, traders say buffers that initially absorbed the energy shock—especially onshore crude stockpiles—are running thin. Recovery in exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile, refining capacity has been eroded, and credible diplomatic off-ramps look narrower. Brent forward curves reflect this change: December 2027 futures are up more than 13% since September to $86 a barrel, and December 2026 is up around 12%. With security costs for Gulf barrels rising to nearly a third of total move-out expenses, the market is paying a premium for the risk that disruptions become the new normal.