Diverging Markets And Converging Talks?

Rabobank’s senior macro strategist Teeuwe Mevissen highlighted a week where macro divergence is widening as markets weigh resilient equities against a more cautious fixed-income signal. The backdrop combines geopolitical shocks, renewed inflation pressures, and differing central-bank approaches. In Switzerland, Iranian and U.S. negotiators concluded an initial round of high-level talks, reporting progress and agreeing on a roadmap for a final peace deal within 60 days. The package includes plans for a mechanism to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon and to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with further technical negotiations scheduled to continue and oversight by a high-level committee. On monetary policy, the Fed dropped an “easing bias” narrative after holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, expecting inflation to decline only gradually toward 2%, with core PCE above target through 2026. Meanwhile, the ECB resumed tightening, raising rates by 25 bps earlier in June and revising headline inflation projections to 3.0% in 2026 while trimming growth forecasts.