Energy Giants Warn Another Oil Price Spike Coming Soon

Energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron warned of a potential oil-price spike at a Bernstein conference, citing plunging global inventories and tightening market buffers. Neil Chapman, Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President, warned inventories could hit a critical low within two to three weeks, predicting Brent crude could surge to $150-$160 per barrel once the floor is breached. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth echoed concerns that buffers have eroded and the market’s capacity to absorb imbalances has diminished. The comments underline a divide between optimistic paper markets and physical supply realities, intensified by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. The root cause is Hormuz closures, removing roughly 12-13 million barrels per day from markets, the largest disruption in history per IEA. While strategic reserves and stockpiles have cushioned the blow, those mitigations are waning. Goldman Sachs data show global inventories fell a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May. The implications extend beyond higher pump prices to inflationary pressure across transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and chemicals. A sustained spike could strain households, businesses and energy-intensive industries, highlighting the fragility of the energy system amid geopolitical tension and demand growth.