Financial astrology: Is the STI really hoping for Spain to win the World Cup?

Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup match between Spain and Argentina, a Singapore-based analysis examines whether the Straits Times Index (STI) shows a consistent market pattern linked to the winning region. The article says that since 1990, within the six months after a European World Cup win, the STI has averaged a 8.7% rally, while after a South American win it has averaged a 5.7% decline. Maybank’s Thilan Wickramasinghe is cited, noting that the bank’s proprietary AI model predicts a Spanish win “narrowly edging out Argentina,” based on macro factors like growth, GDP per capita, and inflation, and match-day climate conditions rather than team tactics. The piece argues the correlation is weak, citing an r-value of 0.38, and says the small sample across nine World Cups makes the pattern statistically unreliable. It also links historical STI moves to major economic events, including the dot-com bubble.