FOMC Prediction Market Preview: What Will Kevin Warsh Say?

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first press conference, with markets pricing in no change to policy rates. In Kalshi’s prediction market, the top bet is that Warsh will say the stance is unchanged at 81%, while references to 'Oil' also clock in at 81% and 'Iran' at 57%. Traders expect Warsh to frame AI-driven growth as a mitigating force on inflation, supporting a potential future policy path even as price pressures remain elevated. Part of the backdrop is the Fed’s balance sheet, currently around $6.7 trillion in assets, which Warsh has signaled should be reduced as part of the normalization process.