From 'oil' to 'shock', here's what Kalshi traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will say this week

Kalshi traders are looking for specific language from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh this week after June’s FOMC statement was shorter and Warsh offered no rate outlook. An event contract on the Kalshi platform suggests there is more than a 50% chance Warsh will use the word “shock,” and a 74% chance he will say “oil.” The contract will be settled based on what Warsh says at a Wednesday press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. This week’s Fed meeting and the “word” contract come after Iran and the U.S. paused fighting. Last week, exchanged attacks pushed Brent crude back above $100 per barrel, but the halt eased oil gains, with Brent trading below $89 on Monday.