Gold's Sovereign Put: The Structural Bid Is Shifting Up a Gear

Gold is seeing a shift in what’s driving demand, as central-bank buying moves from a steady background factor to a more forceful structural bid. Goldman Sachs estimates June purchases at 57 tonnes and says the three-month seasonally adjusted pace is near 100 tonnes per month versus about 17 tonnes pre-2022, with China a major contributor. The change matters because macro headwinds are easing: softer U.S. inflation, weaker payrolls, and a disappointing July retail-sales report are pushing September tightening odds back toward roughly one in three. That repricing helped gold regain support around $4,380/oz, while the official-sector flow limits how long leveraged short positions can fade dips.