Here's How Much Social Security's Trump Bump-Driven 2027 COLA Is Projected to Boost Benefits

More than 71 million Social Security recipients are awaiting the mid-October announcement of the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is based on inflation data from July through September. Estimates are tightening as one month of that data is already known, but the article says the projected increase could also be affected by a “Trump bump” linked to two policy factors. First, Trump’s tariff and trade approach is expected to add modest inflation pressure; after new broad tariffs introduced in April 2025, prices rose and supported the 2026 COLA, even though the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the measures in February 2026. Second, the article points to the Iran war after Trump approved military action on Feb. 28, 2026, as another potential inflation driver influencing 2027.