History Says Energy Led All Sectors in the Last Bear Market. Here's What's Different Now.

Energy stocks dominated the last bear market: in 2022, S&P 500 energy delivered a 65.7% total return versus the broader S&P 500’s -18.1% decline (including dividends). In 2026, energy is leading again—up 42% year to date for S&P 500 energy stocks compared with a 12% gain for the broader index excluding dividends—but the current move is not tied to a full-market bear scenario. Analysts point to oil price boosts from Middle East disruptions and unusually high refining margins. Still, the U.S. EIA expects global liquid-fuels supply to catch up, with Brent projected to fall from $96/bbl in 2026 to $84/bbl in 2027.