How El Niño could spark global crisis in 2027

El Niño conditions could set off a cascade of pressures on food supplies and prices through 2027, according to multiple reports. JPMorgan warned that a potentially historic El Niño—combined with disruptions tied to the Iran war and other factors affecting the Strait of Hormuz—could drive inflation in the first half of next year and help keep food price pressures elevated into 2027. The bank said successive shocks since COVID-19 have compounded the risk of a global food crisis. Mercy Corps also warned of a food security shock, noting fertilizer and fuel constraints already colliding with planting windows. NOAA sees a 69% chance of “historic” strength.