Job Market Trends Without College Degree Show a 20-Year Best for Workers Who Skipped College

Workers without a college degree are seeing employment conditions near a 20-year best, while recent graduates face a tougher backdrop. An analysis by the Burning Glass Institute reports the unemployment rate for people aged 22 to 34 without a college degree is close to a 20-year low, and is described as structural rather than a short-term seasonal shift. For recent college graduates, unemployment remains lower in absolute terms (2.7% versus 4.7% for those with only a high school diploma) but is worse compared with their own historical norms. The report points to shrinking trades labor, retirement among skilled workers, reduced immigration, and AI taking over entry-level tasks once used to start careers.