Key Events This Week: Core PCE, Global PMIs, Micron Earnings And Fed Talk

This week’s inflation and policy calendar is set to be shaped by core PCE data, global flash PMIs, and prominent Fed commentary, with additional cross-Atlantic releases in Europe and Asia. The focus in the US begins with the global flash PMIs and then shifts to Thursday’s core PCE deflator reading, where economists forecast a 0.37% month-on-month rise and an annual rate around 3.44%, the highest since October 2023. Analysts also flag Wednesday’s Fed bank stress test results and appearances by Fed officials Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday. In rates, DB economists expect two 25 bps hikes this year, taking the fed funds rate to about 4.1% by September and December, followed by a pause through 2027, then easing in the first half of 2028. Europe and Asia add Ifo, Tokyo CPI, and Australia CPI ahead of ECB consumer expectations on Friday.