Looming AI disappointment and rising yields. Why one research firm is hitting the brakes on U.S. stocks.

A research firm is warning that U.S. stocks may face an “AI disappointment” and rising bond yields, prompting it to shift portfolio guidance away from the U.S. MacroResearchBoard, in a client note published July 2, said technology stocks—and semiconductors in particular—are likely to face a major test in the next 6 to 12 months. Analyst Peter Perkins argued U.S. equities are in a bubble, with “greater odds of investor disappointment than positive surprises” as capital-market pricing already reflects significant optimism. The firm points to low-cost capital following the 2008–09 crisis and predicts risk assets could suffer when central banks raise rates and yields climb. It recommends overweight emerging markets, Japan and the euro area, mild underweight in the U.S., and short-duration options such as the 2-year Treasury note.