Mark Your Calendar: SpaceX Stock Could Look Very Different After Earnings

Investors should brace for a potential shift in SpaceX's valuation as it nears its first earnings report. Morningstar, in a June 9 note, warned that SpaceX's IPO remains one of the most watched debuts in memory, but the valuation deserves closer scrutiny. Independent analysis has valued the core business at about $780 billion, far below SpaceX's current market capitalization. Even so, the stock has risen more than 30% since its IPO day, underscoring how much market enthusiasm remains. Analysts expect SpaceX to outline post-IPO spending aimed at high-growth milestones in its upcoming results, likely in late July or early August for what will be treated as Q2. Investors will listen most closely for updates on Starlink, which generates the most cash and is known for its EBITDA margins, even as broader TAM remains tied to rockets and AI ambitions. The company is also expected to discuss capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, including terrestrial data centers and the potential for orbital data centers. The earnings narrative will be a test of whether SpaceX can convert bold growth bets into sustained profitability.