When Will The Strait Of Hormuz Reopen? Here's What Predition Markets Think After Trump's Iran Push

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point for oil markets as traders weigh timelines after U.S. actions against Iran. The waterway, about 24 miles wide at its narrowest point, accounts for more than a fifth of the global crude supply chain. On Polymarket, traders priced a 40% chance the strait would reopen before June 30, 2026, a 63% chance by July 31, 2026, and an 84% probability that traffic would return to normal by year’s end. Kalshi bets were more cautious: a 33% chance of pre-war levels by the end of June and a 77% chance by year-end. Most bettors deem May reopening unlikely.

The context is tense as the U.S. conducted strikes on purported Iranian missile sites and boats described as placing underwater mines, framed by officials as self-defense to safeguard troops. Oil prices moved lower on the market’s optimism, with West Texas Intermediate trading around $91.95 a barrel at the time. The market scene reflects shifting expectations for a possible deal, even as broader tensions persist. For energy markets, the strait’s status remains a pivotal driver of prices given its role in global supply.