Nobody's Talking About the 1 Biggest Risk Facing Nvidia

Nvidia’s long run has been powered by the AI spending boom, with the stock up 13,440% over 10 years (as of July 29) and reporting strong momentum into fiscal 2027. But one key risk highlighted in the discussion is whether hyperscalers slow their capex cycle. In its fiscal 2027 first quarter ended April 26, Nvidia posted 85% year-over-year revenue growth and a 211% surge in net income. On the Q1 2027 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress said analysts are forecasting hyperscale capex to exceed $1 trillion in 2027 and that total AI infrastructure spending could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by the end of the decade. The uncertainty is what happens to “picks and shovels” demand if spending flattens.