RBI MPC begins 3-day meeting today amid expectations of first rate hike since 2023

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kicks off a three-day meeting today, with expectations growing for the first repo-rate increase since 2023. The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% for four straight policy meetings after cutting a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025. Markets are now looking for a 25 basis point hike, due Wednesday, October 7, citing rising inflation risks and higher crude prices. Brent is around $101.26/bbl and crude about $89.98/bbl. Analysts at Union Bank of India and EY see a move toward tightening, with further hikes possible in FY27.