Refiners Are Running "Incredibly Hard." Here's Why Gas Prices Aren't Falling

The article examines why gas prices have not fallen as quickly as crude oil, despite sharp declines from spring highs. It cites Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, arguing that gasoline supply remains tight, U.S. refiners are already running “incredibly hard,” and a mid-August geopolitical deadline could keep fuel prices supported. Croft’s explanation centers on the disconnect between wholesale crude and retail gasoline, noting that U.S. gasoline inventories are still drawing down even as crude weakens, per EIA data. She says refiners are effectively at maximum capacity, leaving little slack to quickly convert cheaper crude into finished gasoline. The average U.S. gasoline price is given as $3.83 per gallon, down from $4.29 a month earlier but still above last year. The piece points to the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor, noting traffic averaging about 40 vessels per day versus 100-plus previously, and frames negotiations as uncertain, with a risk premium potentially persisting into mid-August.