Ten years on, Britain counts the cost of Brexit

Ten years on, Britain’s Brexit decision continues to weigh on the economy, starting with the June 23, 2016 referendum. In a tight vote, 51.9% of voters backed leaving the European Union while 48.1% chose to remain, launching a long divorce process. While the article says some worst-case scenarios, such as an immediate recession or a housing crash, did not occur, economists broadly estimate reduced growth potential from 2% up to 8% of foregone output. Michael Saunders of Oxford Economics, speaking to CNN, said Brexit is a “constant drag” and has reduced GDP versus a counterfactual, affecting government revenue and contributing to tax hikes and spending cuts. It also highlights that new trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, India, and Japan are small compared with UK-EU trade of £856 billion ($1.1 billion). Net migration averaged 550,000 per year since 2021 versus 250,000 in the 2010s, with net migration just under 950,000 in 2023.