The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning to Stocks. Here's What History Says Is Coming Next.

U.S. bond yields have surged in 2026, with the 10-year Treasury note rising from 4.17% in early January to 5.31% in early October, a level not seen since 2002. Historically, such jumps often precede stock market corrections, prompting some investors to consider exiting equities. But the article argues that a faster view of the bond move points to a supply-and-demand imbalance: governments are borrowing heavily, while AI “hyperscalers” have issued hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds for data center build-outs, outpacing available capital. Higher yields can lift borrowing costs and make bonds more attractive than stocks, yet it concludes that leaving stocks now may be premature.