The Stock Market Just Finished Its Best Quarter in Years. Here's What History Says Is Coming Next.

The S&P 500 delivered its best quarter in years, rising nearly 15% in the second quarter of 2026, its strongest since the 2020 COVID rebound. After a volatile first quarter, the index gained about 10% for the first half, putting it on track for a fourth straight year of double-digit returns. The article notes that such streaks are uncommon and recalls that the 1995-1999 run ended with the tech bubble collapse and three consecutive years of negative double-digit performance. It highlights risks including ongoing AI-driven earnings growth versus factors like inflation, possible Federal Reserve rate hikes, and geopolitical conditions. FactSet estimates call for 24% earnings growth in 2026 and 17% in 2027, with valuation measures cited: the Shiller CAPE near record highs, but a forward P/E around 23 for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).