TLT Is Down More Than Half From Its Peak. Is It a Bargain or a Trap?

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $79.42, well below its roughly $179 peak from August 2020, setting the stage for a debate over whether the sell-off is a bargain or a structural loss. The fund fell 1.29% on the day, 2.89% over the week, and 4.49% over the month. The 20-year Treasury yield is 5.53% and the 30-year 5.47%, both higher than earlier levels in September, which pressures prices due to TLT’s duration sensitivity. The 30-year real yield is 3.21%. While distributions total about $3.89 per share over 12 months and the expense ratio is 0.15%, the outlook faces headwinds from higher long-end inflation expectations and Federal Reserve rate tightening.