Traders price a one-in-100 chance that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 this month

Polymarket traders are pricing a 1% chance that Bitcoin will touch $100,000 before the end of August, according to the platform’s monthly market. With $19.8 million in volume and six days remaining, the odds for other price levels are higher but still cautious: $92,500 is set at 6% and $90,000 at 12%. A move back to $77,500 carries a 50% probability, while $75,000 is 27% and $72,500 11%. The implied “central case” is a finish between $77,500 and $85,000, with only modest upside conviction. Analysts cited macro drivers, including a U.S. Treasury bond buyback plan that has revived a gold-and-bitcoin rebound narrative.