Trump's War on Iran Has Broken the Oil Market

Almost eight months into Trump’s war on Iran, the article argues the conflict has already reshaped how global oil markets behave. While some expected effects include the reluctance to acknowledge missteps, the piece highlights surprises: oil’s resilience, new stress points beyond Hormuz such as Bab-al Mandeb, pipeline disruption risk tied to the East-West route, and strain tied to global refinery capacity. It also says the war increases the odds of “regionalization” of the conflict. The central hypothesis is that, unlike in the past, oil demand is becoming more elastic, meaning consumption may respond more to price changes—potentially a structural shift rather than a temporary shock.