United Airlines Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Scott Kirby Say? - United Airlines Holdings

Ahead of United Airlines’ earnings call on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET, traders are using Kalshi to handicap what CEO Scott Kirby will say. Markets assign a 15% chance that Kirby will even mention “American Airlines.” Wall Street expects profit to roughly halve to about $1.84 per share on Thursday, versus $3.87 a year earlier, after higher jet fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict. Kalshi probabilities also show “Starlink” at 93%, reflecting United’s effort to roll satellite WiFi across its fleet with a promise of free service on every plane by the end of 2027. “Record” is at 85% after the airline carried a record three million passengers over Memorial Day weekend, while “Oil” sits at 68% after it rose 4 points. Traders also watch Newark, labor contract costs, and whether Kirby addresses fare increase retention tied to fuel normalization amid ongoing tensions.