Wall Street's Midterm Map Just Flipped - Here's What Goldman And JPMorgan See

A jobs report released ahead of Election Day raised pressure on the White House and shifted the election outlook. In September, the economy added just 29,000 jobs versus expectations of 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August, flipping July to a net loss. The backdrop also includes a Wall Street Journal poll showing President Trump’s approval at 37%—the lowest in the Journal’s surveys for any president entering a midterm since 1990—and a gasoline average of $4.41. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, rates were raised in September for the first time since 2023. Goldman and JPMorgan both relaunched coverage, broadly agreeing: Democrats’ odds of sweeping both chambers are around 62% in JPMorgan’s betting-market grid, up from ~52% two weeks earlier.