Washington Elections: Who's Leading In Prediction Markets?

Online prediction market data from Kalshi suggests that none of the 10 U.S. House races in Washington is likely to be truly competitive in November, but election watchers are not convinced. Using Kalshi odds that update regularly, the article highlights WA-03 as the main contest to monitor: incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who survived a left-leaning primary challenge, faces Republican John Braun on Nov. 3. The piece explains how prediction markets work, with “event contracts” priced as implied probabilities and typically settling at $1 or $0 after the event. It contrasts prediction-market “wisdom of the crowd” against polls, which measure registered or likely voter preferences.