We're Holding Rocket Lab Despite 356% Rally

Rocket Lab’s 356.85% rally over the past year has prompted caution after a $200 million revenue quarter. The stock trades at 122.39, with a target of 113.26 implying roughly 7.5% downside over the next year. Q1 results released May 7 showed revenue of $200.35 million and a backlog of $2.2 billion, with EPS of -$0.07, beating by 11%. The firm cited 31 Electron/HASTE contracts and five Neutron missions in the quarter, guiding Q2 revenue to $225–$240 million.

A Neutron debut later in 2026 could broaden medium-lift launches and national security opportunities. With 12 Buy or Strong Buy ratings and no sells, the bear case hinges on valuation against a roughly $70.9 billion market cap and $198 million net loss for FY2025.