Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S., European PMI Data in Focus

The week starting October 19 spotlights purchasing managers’ index data for the U.S. and Europe, which could shape expectations for future interest-rate moves. In the U.S., provisional PMI readings for October arrive on Friday, supplementing recent signals of stronger inflation and a resilient economy. Still, a back-to-back rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month is considered unlikely, with money markets pricing only a 15% probability of a quarter-point increase on Oct. 28, while December is fully priced. Investors will also watch weekly jobless claims Thursday and final University of Michigan sentiment on Friday, along with movements in Treasury yields. Canada, eurozone flash PMI surveys, and central-bank decisions in Asia add to the schedule.