Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Inflation Data in Focus

Markets are entering the week starting Oct. 12 with a heavy focus on inflation and interest-rate expectations. Investors expect the Federal Reserve could raise rates again before year-end, though a move as soon as this month looks unlikely. U.S. consumer-price inflation for September is due Wednesday, followed by producer-price data on Thursday and retail sales the same day, with industrial production released Friday. LSEG data cited in the report shows money markets priced only a 19% chance of a hike on Oct. 28, down from as high as 70% previously, while a quarter-point increase in December remains fully priced. In Europe, final eurozone inflation and several country releases are scheduled, with French bonds under scrutiny due to budget concerns. In Asia, China’s inflation and trade data lead, alongside Singapore’s monetary-policy decision, Bank of Japan commentary, and RBA minutes.