Crude Faces a Bearish Supply Shock as Gulf Exports Return

Crude Faces a Bearish Supply Shock as Gulf Exports Return reports oil prices giving back much of the premium added during the Iran conflict as Gulf exports resume. WTI traded near $70.23 on Monday, up 1.4%, after settling below $70 on Friday for the first time since February 27, the day before hostilities began. Brent rose 1.1% to $73.41, recovering from a four-month low after falling to about $72 on Friday. The article attributes the sharp decline in the geopolitical risk premium to a US-Iran agreement that suspends attacks and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. At war peak levels, Brent was above $116 and WTI above $120 in March, while prices have since rolled back toward pre-war levels near Feb. 28. The weekend’s reported violence—an Iranian strike on a Qatari oil supertanker followed by US fighter-jet retaliation and then pauses for talks in Doha—kept uncertainty alive. The piece frames a key trading range of $65–$70, with $76 cited as resistance and the mid-$50s as downside if $65 breaks.